GroupABCDEFGH
WinnerRealWolfsburgAtleticoManCBarcaBayernChelseaZenit
Runner-upPSGEindhovenBenficaJuveRomaArsenalKyivGent
  • Runners-up are matched with group winners
  • No matches allowed between teams from same association
  • No matches allowed between teams from same group
These rules lead to 9147 possible results of the draw in 2015. Intuitive: Fair draw should give each result a chance of 1/9147 = 0.00010933 = 0.010933%.
UEFA's draw mechanism is quite complicated, for a description see Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (2013), 9(3), 249-270. At first glance, it appears to be fair, however: closer inspection shows that probabilities of UEFA's draw mechanism are slightly different, ranging from 0.009184% (approx. 1/10888) to 0.011669% (approx. 1/8570), corresponding to relative differences from -15.994% to 6.738%. Tableau with the smallest probability of being drawn by UEFA (approx. 1/10888) is
PSG vs. Barca
Roma vs. Real
Eindhoven vs. Atletico
Arsenal vs. Zenit
Benfica vs. Wolfsburg
Kyiv vs. ManC
Juve vs. Chelsea
Gent vs. Bayern
Tableau with the highest probability of being drawn by UEFA (approx. 1/8570) is
PSG vs. Atletico
Roma vs. Real
Eindhoven vs. Barca
Arsenal vs. Wolfsburg
Benfica vs. Zenit
Kyiv vs. ManC
Juve vs. Bayern
Gent vs. Chelsea
The draw procedure employed by UEFA also leads to the probabilities of pairwise matches being slightly different from their values under a perfectly fair draw.
GroupTeamDrawOpponents ranked by decreasing probability
Most probable2nd most3rd most4th most5th most6th most7th most
A RealFair Arsenal
19.2085
Kyiv
15.8303
Juve
13.2721
Gent
13.1519
Benfica
12.8457
Eindhoven
12.8457
Roma
12.8457
UEFA Arsenal
19.2564
Kyiv
15.8042
Juve
13.2049
Gent
13.1512
Benfica
12.8611
Eindhoven
12.8611
Roma
12.8611
PSGFair Chelsea
16.5300
ManC
15.9506
Zenit
15.2509
Bayern
13.7313
Atletico
12.8457
Barca
12.8457
Wolfsburg
12.8457
UEFA Chelsea
16.4468
ManC
15.9686
Zenit
15.3202
Bayern
13.6811
Atletico
12.8611
Barca
12.8611
Wolfsburg
12.8611
B WolfsburgFair Arsenal
19.2085
Kyiv
15.8303
Juve
13.2721
Gent
13.1519
Benfica
12.8457
PSG
12.8457
Roma
12.8457
UEFA Arsenal
19.2564
Kyiv
15.8042
Juve
13.2049
Gent
13.1512
Benfica
12.8611
PSG
12.8611
Roma
12.8611
EindhovenFair Chelsea
16.5300
ManC
15.9506
Zenit
15.2509
Bayern
13.7313
Atletico
12.8457
Barca
12.8457
Real
12.8457
UEFA Chelsea
16.4468
ManC
15.9686
Zenit
15.3202
Bayern
13.6811
Atletico
12.8611
Barca
12.8611
Real
12.8611
C AtleticoFair Arsenal
19.2085
Kyiv
15.8303
Juve
13.2721
Gent
13.1519
Eindhoven
12.8457
PSG
12.8457
Roma
12.8457
UEFA Arsenal
19.2564
Kyiv
15.8042
Juve
13.2049
Gent
13.1512
Eindhoven
12.8611
PSG
12.8611
Roma
12.8611
BenficaFair Chelsea
16.5300
ManC
15.9506
Zenit
15.2509
Bayern
13.7313
Barca
12.8457
Real
12.8457
Wolfsburg
12.8457
UEFA Chelsea
16.4468
ManC
15.9686
Zenit
15.3202
Bayern
13.6811
Barca
12.8611
Real
12.8611
Wolfsburg
12.8611
D ManCFair Kyiv
19.7879
Gent
16.4098
Benfica
15.9506
Eindhoven
15.9506
PSG
15.9506
Roma
15.9506
UEFA Kyiv
19.7804
Gent
16.3453
Benfica
15.9686
Eindhoven
15.9686
PSG
15.9686
Roma
15.9686
JuveFair Chelsea
16.9892
Zenit
15.8303
Bayern
14.0921
Atletico
13.2721
Barca
13.2721
Real
13.2721
Wolfsburg
13.2721
UEFA Chelsea
17.1591
Zenit
15.7448
Bayern
14.2766
Atletico
13.2049
Barca
13.2049
Real
13.2049
Wolfsburg
13.2049
E BarcaFair Arsenal
19.2085
Kyiv
15.8303
Juve
13.2721
Gent
13.1519
Benfica
12.8457
Eindhoven
12.8457
PSG
12.8457
UEFA Arsenal
19.2564
Kyiv
15.8042
Juve
13.2049
Gent
13.1512
Benfica
12.8611
Eindhoven
12.8611
PSG
12.8611
RomaFair Chelsea
16.5300
ManC
15.9506
Zenit
15.2509
Bayern
13.7313
Atletico
12.8457
Real
12.8457
Wolfsburg
12.8457
UEFA Chelsea
16.4468
ManC
15.9686
Zenit
15.3202
Bayern
13.6811
Atletico
12.8611
Real
12.8611
Wolfsburg
12.8611
F BayernFair Kyiv
16.8908
Gent
14.0921
Juve
14.0921
Benfica
13.7313
Eindhoven
13.7313
PSG
13.7313
Roma
13.7313
UEFA Kyiv
17.0029
Juve
14.2766
Gent
13.9961
Benfica
13.6811
Eindhoven
13.6811
PSG
13.6811
Roma
13.6811
ArsenalFair Zenit
23.1661
Atletico
19.2085
Barca
19.2085
Real
19.2085
Wolfsburg
19.2085
UEFA Zenit
22.9742
Atletico
19.2564
Barca
19.2564
Real
19.2564
Wolfsburg
19.2564
G ChelseaFair Juve
16.9892
Gent
16.8908
Benfica
16.5300
Eindhoven
16.5300
PSG
16.5300
Roma
16.5300
UEFA Juve
17.1591
Gent
17.0537
Benfica
16.4468
Eindhoven
16.4468
PSG
16.4468
Roma
16.4468
KyivFair ManC
19.7879
Bayern
16.8908
Atletico
15.8303
Barca
15.8303
Real
15.8303
Wolfsburg
15.8303
UEFA ManC
19.7804
Bayern
17.0029
Atletico
15.8042
Barca
15.8042
Real
15.8042
Wolfsburg
15.8042
H ZenitFair Arsenal
23.1661
Juve
15.8303
Benfica
15.2509
Eindhoven
15.2509
PSG
15.2509
Roma
15.2509
UEFA Arsenal
22.9742
Juve
15.7448
Benfica
15.3202
Eindhoven
15.3202
PSG
15.3202
Roma
15.3202
GentFair Chelsea
16.8908
ManC
16.4098
Bayern
14.0921
Atletico
13.1519
Barca
13.1519
Real
13.1519
Wolfsburg
13.1519
UEFA Chelsea
17.0537
ManC
16.3453
Bayern
13.9961
Atletico
13.1512
Barca
13.1512
Real
13.1512
Wolfsburg
13.1512
Teams get the following awards for reaching certain stages:
  • reaching quarter-final is awarded with EUR 6.5 million
  • reaching semi-final is awarded with additional EUR 7 million
  • reaching final is awarded with additional EUR 10.5 million
  • winning thophy is awarded with additional EUR 4.5 million
Under a simple model (for details, see Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (2013), 9(3), 249-270), with strengths being determined by weighted averages of team's UEFA coefficients of the last three years, this leads to the following expected payoffs and probabilities of reaching certain stages:
GroupTeamStrengthDrawProbablity of reaching ... (in percent)Exp. Payoff (EUR)
quarter-finalsemi-finalfinaltrophy
A Real16Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
76.4074
76.4182
0.0108
48.6448
48.6523
0.0074
29.7020
29.7068
0.0048
15.6854
15.6880
0.0026
12,196,173.85
12,198,017.68
1,843.83
PSG10Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
50.9012
50.9115
0.0103
26.4156
26.4210
0.0054
12.8130
12.8156
0.0026
6.3492
6.3505
0.0013
6,788,744.70
6,790,129.20
1,384.50
B Wolfsburg4Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
43.4270
43.4333
0.0063
12.8045
12.8063
0.0019
3.4557
3.4562
0.0005
1.2863
1.2865
0.0002
4,139,800.20
4,140,405.49
605.29
Eindhoven2Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
15.2283
15.2314
0.0031
2.8878
2.8884
0.0006
0.4808
0.4809
0.0001
0.1219
0.1219
0.0000
1,247,958.57
1,248,215.92
257.35
C Atletico13Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
71.2687
71.2784
0.0097
41.5913
41.5974
0.0061
23.0021
23.0056
0.0035
11.8031
11.8049
0.0018
10,490,218.88
10,491,728.56
1,509.68
Benfica6Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
38.2967
38.3061
0.0094
15.0896
15.0933
0.0036
5.4471
5.4484
0.0013
2.3970
2.3976
0.0006
4,225,375.70
4,226,400.93
1,025.23
D ManC7Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
64.6296
64.6125
-0.0171
27.1729
27.1668
-0.0061
10.5863
10.5841
-0.0021
4.8542
4.8533
-0.0009
7,433,019.28
7,431,219.25
-1,800.04
Juve12Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
52.3253
52.3089
-0.0164
29.6604
29.6521
-0.0083
15.8711
15.8671
-0.0040
8.0772
8.0752
-0.0020
7,507,316.66
7,505,153.44
-2,163.21
E Barca15Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
72.3207
72.3282
0.0074
44.8702
44.8752
0.0050
26.5812
26.5843
0.0031
13.8971
13.8987
0.0017
11,258,151.90
11,259,391.01
1,239.11
Roma3Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
24.5054
24.5133
0.0079
6.1169
6.1188
0.0019
1.3692
1.3696
0.0004
0.4424
0.4426
0.0001
2,184,707.30
2,185,402.14
694.84
F Bayern14Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
74.1312
74.0741
-0.0572
44.6727
44.6390
-0.0337
25.6239
25.6048
-0.0191
13.2723
13.2624
-0.0099
11,233,382.05
11,224,850.43
-8,531.62
Arsenal8Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
44.1089
44.1015
-0.0074
20.4610
20.4581
-0.0029
8.8069
8.8060
-0.0009
4.1921
4.1918
-0.0003
5,412,710.33
5,411,926.20
-784.14
G Chelsea11Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
69.9377
69.9351
-0.0026
37.7715
37.7716
0.0002
19.1822
19.1830
0.0009
9.6307
9.6312
0.0005
9,637,460.83
9,637,421.58
-39.26
Kyiv5Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
33.6086
33.6004
-0.0082
11.8603
11.8580
-0.0024
3.8211
3.8205
-0.0006
1.5812
1.5810
-0.0002
3,487,147.98
3,486,375.32
-772.67
H Zenit9Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
59.3397
59.3846
0.0450
28.9739
28.9950
0.0211
13.1649
13.1744
0.0095
6.3958
6.4005
0.0046
7,555,373.26
7,560,981.81
5,608.55
Gent1Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
9.5637
9.5625
-0.0011
1.0067
1.0066
-0.0001
0.0926
0.0926
-0.0000
0.0140
0.0140
-0.0000
702,458.52
702,381.06
-77.46