GroupABCDEFGH
WinnerManUPSGRomaBarcaLiverpoolManCBesiktasTottenham
Runner-upBaselBayernChelseaJuveSevilla FCDonetskPortoReal
  • Runners-up are matched with group winners
  • No matches allowed between teams from same association
  • No matches allowed between teams from same group
These rules lead to 4238 possible results of the draw in 2017. Intuitive: Fair draw should give each result a chance of 1/4238 = 0.00023596 = 0.023596%.
UEFA's draw mechanism is quite complicated, for a description see Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (2013), 9(3), 249-270. At first glance, it appears to be fair, however: closer inspection shows that probabilities of UEFA's draw mechanism are slightly different, ranging from 0.018986% (approx. 1/5267) to 0.027098% (approx. 1/3690), corresponding to relative differences from -19.538% to 14.843%. Tableau with the smallest probability of being drawn by UEFA (approx. 1/5267) is
Basel vs. Besiktas
Sevilla FC vs. ManC
Bayern vs. ManU
Donetsk vs. Liverpool
Chelsea vs. Barca
Porto vs. PSG
Juve vs. Tottenham
Real vs. Roma
Tableau with the highest probability of being drawn by UEFA (approx. 1/3690) is
Basel vs. Roma
Sevilla FC vs. ManC
Bayern vs. Barca
Donetsk vs. ManU
Chelsea vs. Besiktas
Porto vs. PSG
Juve vs. Tottenham
Real vs. Liverpool
The draw procedure employed by UEFA also leads to the probabilities of pairwise matches being slightly different from their values under a perfectly fair draw.
GroupTeamDrawOpponents ranked by decreasing probability
Most probable2nd most3rd most4th most5th most6th most7th most
A ManUFair Juve
18.3341
Real
18.3341
Sevilla FC
18.3341
Donetsk
15.3138
Bayern
14.8419
Porto
14.8419
UEFA Juve
18.2874
Real
18.2874
Sevilla FC
18.2874
Donetsk
15.5430
Bayern
14.7974
Porto
14.7974
BaselFair Liverpool
15.8329
Roma
15.8329
Tottenham
15.8329
ManC
15.3138
Barca
14.5824
Besiktas
11.3025
PSG
11.3025
UEFA Liverpool
15.9331
Roma
15.9331
Tottenham
15.9331
ManC
15.5430
Barca
14.9598
Besiktas
10.8488
PSG
10.8488
B PSGFair Chelsea
28.1265
Juve
12.8126
Real
12.8126
Sevilla FC
12.8126
Basel
11.3025
Donetsk
11.3025
Porto
10.8306
UEFA Chelsea
29.3678
Juve
12.8015
Real
12.8015
Sevilla FC
12.8015
Basel
10.8488
Donetsk
10.8488
Porto
10.5301
BayernFair Liverpool
15.3138
Roma
15.3138
Tottenham
15.3138
ManC
14.8419
ManU
14.8419
Barca
13.5441
Besiktas
10.8306
UEFA Liverpool
15.1557
Roma
15.1557
Tottenham
15.1557
ManC
14.7974
ManU
14.7974
Barca
14.4079
Besiktas
10.5301
C RomaFair Real
18.8532
Sevilla FC
18.8532
Basel
15.8329
Donetsk
15.8329
Bayern
15.3138
Porto
15.3138
UEFA Real
18.9111
Sevilla FC
18.9111
Basel
15.9331
Donetsk
15.9331
Bayern
15.1557
Porto
15.1557
ChelseaFair Barca
43.7471
Besiktas
28.1265
PSG
28.1265
UEFA Barca
41.2644
Besiktas
29.3678
PSG
29.3678
D BarcaFair Chelsea
43.7471
Basel
14.5824
Donetsk
14.5824
Bayern
13.5441
Porto
13.5441
UEFA Chelsea
41.2644
Basel
14.9598
Donetsk
14.9598
Bayern
14.4079
Porto
14.4079
JuveFair Liverpool
18.8532
Tottenham
18.8532
ManC
18.3341
ManU
18.3341
Besiktas
12.8126
PSG
12.8126
UEFA Liverpool
18.9111
Tottenham
18.9111
ManC
18.2874
ManU
18.2874
Besiktas
12.8015
PSG
12.8015
E LiverpoolFair Juve
18.8532
Real
18.8532
Basel
15.8329
Donetsk
15.8329
Bayern
15.3138
Porto
15.3138
UEFA Juve
18.9111
Real
18.9111
Basel
15.9331
Donetsk
15.9331
Bayern
15.1557
Porto
15.1557
Sevilla FCFair Roma
18.8532
Tottenham
18.8532
ManC
18.3341
ManU
18.3341
Besiktas
12.8126
PSG
12.8126
UEFA Roma
18.9111
Tottenham
18.9111
ManC
18.2874
ManU
18.2874
Besiktas
12.8015
PSG
12.8015
F ManCFair Juve
18.3341
Real
18.3341
Sevilla FC
18.3341
Basel
15.3138
Bayern
14.8419
Porto
14.8419
UEFA Juve
18.2874
Real
18.2874
Sevilla FC
18.2874
Basel
15.5430
Bayern
14.7974
Porto
14.7974
DonetskFair Liverpool
15.8329
Roma
15.8329
Tottenham
15.8329
ManU
15.3138
Barca
14.5824
Besiktas
11.3025
PSG
11.3025
UEFA Liverpool
15.9331
Roma
15.9331
Tottenham
15.9331
ManU
15.5430
Barca
14.9598
Besiktas
10.8488
PSG
10.8488
G BesiktasFair Chelsea
28.1265
Juve
12.8126
Real
12.8126
Sevilla FC
12.8126
Basel
11.3025
Donetsk
11.3025
Bayern
10.8306
UEFA Chelsea
29.3678
Juve
12.8015
Real
12.8015
Sevilla FC
12.8015
Basel
10.8488
Donetsk
10.8488
Bayern
10.5301
PortoFair Liverpool
15.3138
Roma
15.3138
Tottenham
15.3138
ManC
14.8419
ManU
14.8419
Barca
13.5441
PSG
10.8306
UEFA Liverpool
15.1557
Roma
15.1557
Tottenham
15.1557
ManC
14.7974
ManU
14.7974
Barca
14.4079
PSG
10.5301
H TottenhamFair Juve
18.8532
Sevilla FC
18.8532
Basel
15.8329
Donetsk
15.8329
Bayern
15.3138
Porto
15.3138
UEFA Juve
18.9111
Sevilla FC
18.9111
Basel
15.9331
Donetsk
15.9331
Bayern
15.1557
Porto
15.1557
RealFair Liverpool
18.8532
Roma
18.8532
ManC
18.3341
ManU
18.3341
Besiktas
12.8126
PSG
12.8126
UEFA Liverpool
18.9111
Roma
18.9111
ManC
18.2874
ManU
18.2874
Besiktas
12.8015
PSG
12.8015
Teams get the following awards for reaching certain stages:
  • reaching quarter-final is awarded with EUR 6.5 million
  • reaching semi-final is awarded with additional EUR 7.5 million
  • reaching final is awarded with additional EUR 11 million
  • winning thophy is awarded with additional EUR 4.5 million
Under a simple model (for details, see Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (2013), 9(3), 249-270), with strengths being determined by weighted averages of team's UEFA coefficients of the last three years, this leads to the following expected payoffs and probabilities of reaching certain stages:
GroupTeamStrengthDrawProbablity of reaching ... (in percent)Exp. Payoff (EUR)
quarter-finalsemi-finalfinaltrophy
A ManU12Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
55.7263
55.7448
0.0186
31.9199
31.9349
0.0150
17.2424
17.2529
0.0105
8.7953
8.8008
0.0055
8,308,646.87
8,312,386.68
3,739.81
Basel3Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
29.7732
29.7898
0.0167
7.4344
7.4397
0.0053
1.6596
1.6612
0.0016
0.5363
0.5370
0.0006
2,699,527.64
2,701,215.03
1,687.39
B PSG11Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
68.4222
68.6567
0.2345
37.4864
37.6235
0.1371
19.2932
19.3689
0.0757
9.7192
9.7577
0.0385
9,818,543.11
9,854,131.60
35,588.49
Bayern14Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
64.4789
64.3356
-0.1434
39.2792
39.1994
-0.0799
22.7051
22.6642
-0.0409
11.7865
11.7663
-0.0202
10,165,021.77
10,144,307.47
-20,714.30
C Roma5Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
42.6832
42.6675
-0.0157
15.0685
15.0665
-0.0020
4.8581
4.8585
0.0004
2.0132
2.0135
0.0004
4,529,538.20
4,528,420.31
-1,117.89
Chelsea1Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
8.5938
8.6579
0.0640
0.9603
0.9666
0.0063
0.0910
0.0916
0.0005
0.0139
0.0139
0.0001
641,259.63
645,955.00
4,695.37
D Barca13Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
80.2084
79.6198
-0.5887
47.4050
47.0601
-0.3449
26.5498
26.3586
-0.1913
13.6682
13.5697
-0.0985
12,304,477.70
12,214,875.48
-89,602.22
Juve15Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
65.2848
65.3041
0.0193
40.9197
40.9369
0.0172
24.4280
24.4419
0.0139
12.8065
12.8145
0.0081
10,575,860.60
10,580,302.50
4,441.90
E Liverpool4Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
36.1569
36.1338
-0.0231
11.0586
11.0548
-0.0038
3.0812
3.0809
-0.0003
1.1674
1.1674
0.0001
3,571,053.51
3,569,242.55
-1,810.96
Sevilla FC9Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
52.5228
52.5417
0.0189
26.1302
26.1437
0.0135
12.0322
12.0405
0.0084
5.8637
5.8679
0.0042
6,961,153.32
6,964,503.88
3,350.56
F ManC10Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
54.3670
54.4264
0.0594
28.5577
28.5923
0.0346
14.0403
14.0593
0.0190
6.9826
6.9921
0.0095
7,534,340.76
7,543,316.18
8,975.42
Donetsk7Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
48.2525
48.2571
0.0046
20.9182
20.9239
0.0057
8.3177
8.3220
0.0043
3.8332
3.8355
0.0023
5,792,712.29
5,794,018.79
1,306.50
G Besiktas8Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
57.9446
58.3540
0.4094
27.0851
27.2757
0.1906
11.7252
11.8087
0.0835
5.5916
5.6315
0.0399
7,339,176.71
7,391,060.07
51,883.36
Porto2Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
21.3745
21.2923
-0.0822
3.9570
3.9451
-0.0119
0.6479
0.6464
-0.0015
0.1631
0.1628
-0.0003
1,764,721.99
1,758,304.95
-6,417.03
H Tottenham6Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
46.8703
46.8570
-0.0133
18.5390
18.5376
-0.0014
6.7233
6.7241
0.0008
2.9673
2.9679
0.0006
5,310,085.40
5,309,227.48
-857.92
Real16Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
67.3406
67.3615
0.0209
43.2806
43.2992
0.0186
26.6050
26.6203
0.0153
14.0922
14.1014
0.0091
11,183,880.50
11,188,732.02
4,851.52