GroupABCDEFGH
WinnerArsenalNapoliBarcaAtleticoMonacoBVBLeicesterJuve
Runner-upPSGBenficaManCBayernBayerRealPortoFC Sevilla
  • Runners-up are matched with group winners
  • No matches allowed between teams from same association
  • No matches allowed between teams from same group
These rules lead to 3501 possible results of the draw in 2016. Intuitive: Fair draw should give each result a chance of 1/3501 = 0.00028563 = 0.028563%.
UEFA's draw mechanism is quite complicated, for a description see Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (2013), 9(3), 249-270. At first glance, it appears to be fair, however: closer inspection shows that probabilities of UEFA's draw mechanism are slightly different, ranging from 0.022113% (approx. 1/4522) to 0.034963% (approx. 1/2860), corresponding to relative differences from -22.582% to 22.406%. Tableau with the smallest probability of being drawn by UEFA (approx. 1/4522) is
PSG vs. Atletico
Bayer vs. Barca
Benfica vs. Juve
Real vs. Arsenal
ManC vs. BVB
Porto vs. Napoli
Bayern vs. Leicester
FC Sevilla vs. Monaco
Tableau with the highest probability of being drawn by UEFA (approx. 1/2860) is
PSG vs. Napoli
Bayer vs. Atletico
Benfica vs. BVB
Real vs. Juve
ManC vs. Monaco
Porto vs. Arsenal
Bayern vs. Barca
FC Sevilla vs. Leicester
The draw procedure employed by UEFA also leads to the probabilities of pairwise matches being slightly different from their values under a perfectly fair draw.
GroupTeamDrawOpponents ranked by decreasing probability
Most probable2nd most3rd most4th most5th most6th most7th most
A ArsenalFair Real
21.7366
FC Sevilla
19.8800
Bayern
16.7666
Bayer
15.5955
Porto
13.1105
Benfica
12.9106
UEFA Real
21.5225
FC Sevilla
19.8865
Bayern
16.4877
Bayer
15.8014
Porto
13.3379
Benfica
12.9641
PSGFair Barca
20.6227
Atletico
20.0800
BVB
18.7661
Leicester
14.6815
Juve
13.3390
Napoli
12.5107
UEFA Barca
20.4133
Atletico
19.7311
BVB
18.8678
Leicester
15.0657
Juve
13.2863
Napoli
12.6359
B NapoliFair Real
17.6235
FC Sevilla
16.4239
ManC
15.6241
Bayern
13.7389
Bayer
13.0534
PSG
12.5107
Porto
11.0254
UEFA Real
17.5915
FC Sevilla
16.3699
ManC
15.8637
Bayern
13.6198
Bayer
13.0308
PSG
12.6359
Porto
10.8885
BenficaFair Barca
17.4807
Atletico
16.8809
BVB
15.9954
Arsenal
12.9106
Leicester
12.7107
Monaco
12.5393
Juve
11.4824
UEFA Barca
17.4106
Atletico
16.9482
BVB
16.1119
Arsenal
12.9641
Leicester
12.7292
Monaco
12.5706
Juve
11.2655
C BarcaFair Bayern
22.4793
Bayer
21.6510
PSG
20.6227
Porto
17.7664
Benfica
17.4807
UEFA Bayern
23.1310
Bayer
21.1556
PSG
20.4133
Porto
17.8896
Benfica
17.4106
ManCFair Atletico
25.3642
BVB
24.2502
Monaco
18.2234
Juve
16.5381
Napoli
15.6241
UEFA Atletico
25.1718
BVB
23.5779
Monaco
18.5748
Juve
16.8118
Napoli
15.8637
D AtleticoFair ManC
25.3642
Bayer
20.3942
PSG
20.0800
Porto
17.2808
Benfica
16.8809
UEFA ManC
25.1718
Bayer
20.9025
PSG
19.7311
Porto
17.2464
Benfica
16.9482
BayernFair Barca
22.4793
Arsenal
16.7666
Leicester
16.4810
Monaco
15.9954
Juve
14.5387
Napoli
13.7389
UEFA Barca
23.1310
Arsenal
16.4877
Leicester
16.1879
Monaco
16.0958
Juve
14.4778
Napoli
13.6198
E MonacoFair Real
20.9083
FC Sevilla
19.5658
ManC
18.2234
Bayern
15.9954
Porto
12.7678
Benfica
12.5393
UEFA Real
20.7955
FC Sevilla
19.1773
ManC
18.5748
Bayern
16.0958
Porto
12.7860
Benfica
12.5706
BayerFair Barca
21.6510
Atletico
20.3942
Arsenal
15.5955
Leicester
15.3956
Juve
13.9103
Napoli
13.0534
UEFA Barca
21.1556
Atletico
20.9025
Arsenal
15.8014
Leicester
15.4116
Juve
13.6982
Napoli
13.0308
F BVBFair FC Sevilla
24.6215
ManC
24.2502
PSG
18.7661
Porto
16.3668
Benfica
15.9954
UEFA FC Sevilla
25.0475
ManC
23.5779
PSG
18.8678
Porto
16.3948
Benfica
16.1119
RealFair Arsenal
21.7366
Leicester
21.2225
Monaco
20.9083
Juve
18.5090
Napoli
17.6235
UEFA Arsenal
21.5225
Leicester
21.0869
Monaco
20.7955
Juve
19.0035
Napoli
17.5915
G LeicesterFair Real
21.2225
FC Sevilla
19.5087
Bayern
16.4810
Bayer
15.3956
PSG
14.6815
Benfica
12.7107
UEFA Real
21.0869
FC Sevilla
19.5188
Bayern
16.1879
Bayer
15.4116
PSG
15.0657
Benfica
12.7292
PortoFair Barca
17.7664
Atletico
17.2808
BVB
16.3668
Arsenal
13.1105
Monaco
12.7678
Juve
11.6824
Napoli
11.0254
UEFA Barca
17.8896
Atletico
17.2464
BVB
16.3948
Arsenal
13.3379
Monaco
12.7860
Juve
11.4569
Napoli
10.8885
H JuveFair Real
18.5090
ManC
16.5381
Bayern
14.5387
Bayer
13.9103
PSG
13.3390
Porto
11.6824
Benfica
11.4824
UEFA Real
19.0035
ManC
16.8118
Bayern
14.4778
Bayer
13.6982
PSG
13.2863
Porto
11.4569
Benfica
11.2655
FC SevillaFair BVB
24.6215
Arsenal
19.8800
Monaco
19.5658
Leicester
19.5087
Napoli
16.4239
UEFA BVB
25.0475
Arsenal
19.8865
Leicester
19.5188
Monaco
19.1773
Napoli
16.3699
Teams get the following awards for reaching certain stages:
  • reaching quarter-final is awarded with EUR 6.5 million
  • reaching semi-final is awarded with additional EUR 7.5 million
  • reaching final is awarded with additional EUR 11 million
  • winning thophy is awarded with additional EUR 4.5 million
Under a simple model (for details, see Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (2013), 9(3), 249-270), with strengths being determined by weighted averages of team's UEFA coefficients of the last three years, this leads to the following expected payoffs and probabilities of reaching certain stages:
GroupTeamStrengthDrawProbablity of reaching ... (in percent)Exp. Payoff (EUR)
quarter-finalsemi-finalfinaltrophy
A Arsenal7Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
45.5861
45.7186
0.1325
19.6571
19.7157
0.0586
7.7944
7.8176
0.0232
3.5905
3.6011
0.0107
5,456,338.62
5,472,373.32
16,034.70
PSG10Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
55.0806
55.3155
0.2350
28.7401
28.8630
0.1229
13.9825
14.0425
0.0600
6.9358
6.9656
0.0297
7,585,930.79
7,618,363.72
32,432.93
B Napoli5Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
34.6519
34.6362
-0.0157
12.3489
12.3471
-0.0017
3.9726
3.9730
0.0004
1.6380
1.6383
0.0003
3,689,234.70
3,688,137.60
-1,097.10
Benfica3Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
33.6451
33.6793
0.0342
8.2725
8.2826
0.0101
1.8425
1.8450
0.0025
0.5952
0.5961
0.0009
3,036,824.47
3,040,119.44
3,294.97
C Barca15Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
68.4744
68.3829
-0.0915
42.6014
42.5534
-0.0480
25.2431
25.2197
-0.0234
13.1978
13.1867
-0.0111
11,016,586.55
11,003,961.21
-12,625.33
ManC9Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
55.1597
55.2932
0.1335
27.1803
27.2495
0.0692
12.4221
12.4554
0.0334
6.0444
6.0607
0.0163
7,262,330.85
7,280,602.55
18,271.70
D Atletico14Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
68.7708
68.8347
0.0639
41.5648
41.6101
0.0453
23.8092
23.8386
0.0293
12.3250
12.3406
0.0156
10,761,105.72
10,772,582.41
11,476.68
Bayern13Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
68.2993
68.1164
-0.1829
40.0670
39.9706
-0.0964
22.2333
22.1854
-0.0479
11.4192
11.3953
-0.0239
10,404,012.52
10,378,542.17
-25,470.36
E Monaco2Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
19.8360
19.8638
0.0278
3.6650
3.6707
0.0057
0.6006
0.6016
0.0010
0.1515
0.1518
0.0003
1,637,097.72
1,639,451.46
2,353.74
Bayer6Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
44.7280
44.7604
0.0324
17.6709
17.6868
0.0159
6.3795
6.3860
0.0065
2.8076
2.8106
0.0030
5,060,726.66
5,064,876.20
4,149.54
F BVB8Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
52.1452
52.1478
0.0027
24.1187
24.1262
0.0075
10.2833
10.2891
0.0058
4.8785
4.8815
0.0030
6,549,033.67
6,550,542.92
1,509.25
Real16Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
78.0762
77.9680
-0.1082
49.9219
49.8611
-0.0608
30.5501
30.5171
-0.0330
16.1495
16.1331
-0.0164
12,906,333.15
12,890,373.77
-15,959.38
G Leicester1Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
10.6380
10.6517
0.0137
1.1265
1.1281
0.0017
0.1034
0.1036
0.0002
0.0156
0.0156
0.0000
788,035.50
789,068.77
1,033.27
Porto4Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
34.3309
34.3323
0.0015
10.4656
10.4686
0.0030
2.8753
2.8767
0.0015
1.0764
1.0770
0.0007
3,381,141.83
3,381,652.55
510.72
H Juve11Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
56.8771
56.7005
-0.1766
30.9652
30.8799
-0.0853
15.7883
15.7499
-0.0384
7.9377
7.9189
-0.0187
8,113,315.35
8,090,369.17
-22,946.19
FC Sevilla12Fair
UEFA
UEFA-Fair
73.7008
73.5986
-0.1022
41.6340
41.5866
-0.0474
22.1197
22.0987
-0.0210
11.2373
11.2270
-0.0102
10,851,951.88
10,838,982.74
-12,969.14